A Cat's Chance in Hell?

Let's think of it gentlemen. For six weeks, we've worked like beasts together - blood, sweat and tears on the practice ground. We've eaten together, we've drunk together, we've sung together. All that work, together, to be afraid of this crowd? No no. The greater the challenge, the greater the response from us.

I wish I was you, boys. All that ability in here, all that individual skill, all that preparation. This is the scene you wanted, this is the stage where you perform. Don't let yourselves down. Don't make excuses. The real professional never makes excuses; because he has no excuses to make; because he's given his all.

Jim Telfer, 1997 Lions Tour

You may have guessed that I've been watching "Living with Lions" again. For all its juddering slow-motion and a slightly unhealthy obsession with Oasis' Wonderwall that unfortunately plagues many men to this day, the film has taken on a new poignancy in light of the Lions' impending return to South Africa, twelve years after their bloody 2-1 series victory.

Like the South African team of 1997, today's Springboks are World Champions. Many of their players will go down in history among the greatest of a generation - Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Schalk Burger, Jon Smit, Bryan Habana, Jean de Villiers. Although New Zealand are currently ranked as the best team in the World after their Tri Nations victory in 2008, South Africa will face the Lions on the back of an undefeated Northern Hemisphere tour, and with the acrid taste of revenge on their lips.

After wining the first test in 1997, Ian McGeechan warned his players that they had wounded a Springbok. Like a frantic animal, he said, it would fight for its life in a frenzy. The Lions had the nerve to "go for the jugular", and won a famous victory. Twelve years on, and the Lions face a new creature, a beast that witnessed the savagery and has felt vengeance fermenting ever since.

So how will the Lions do in 2009?

Many believe they have a cat's chance in Hell. This is not just a convenient idiom in this case - South Africa is arguably the most difficult country to tour, with hard ground, harder fans, and a terrifying home team that will bend and break the rules at will. The Springboks are the most physical and aggressive side around, and consistently cheat at the breakdown without sanction.

This year's Lions will have to overcome one of the most intimidating forwards packs of all time, and contain the prolific try-scoring ability of players like Habana, a man who races cheetahs in his spare time.

The Lions of '97 won for several reasons.

• They had world-leading players in several key positions: Wood, Johnson, Quinnell, Dallaglio, Hill, Back, Rodber, Gibbs, Jenkins to name but a few.
  
• They had a place-kicker of ruthless efficiency in Jenkins, who punished the Springboks for their regular "misdemeanours".
  
• They had players capable of those moments of brilliance which not only seal victories but inspire those around them - Matt Dawson's infamous overarm dummy; Jeremy Guscott's quick-fire drop-goal.
• They had a team of coaches whose passion and understanding of the game was second-to-none.
  

On these criteria, you would have to concede that South Africa are slight favourites. The Springboks have a world-class pack that even the best of the home nations does not match, and the series will surely be won and lost on the forwards' battlefield. The confrontation in the backs is more even, with players like O'Driscoll and Williams offering the sparks of genius needed for success.

The Lions coaching team is formidable, with McGeechan's experience complemented by the ferocity and defensive excellence of Shaun Edwards, the proven ability of Warren Gatland, and the technical skills of a '97 Lion himself, Rob Howley.

Neither side has a truly reliable place-kicker, however. The Lions desperately need a Patersonian or Wilkinsonian kicking performance to punish the Springboks for the penalties they should give away by killing the game, but neither O'Gara or Jones delivered consistently enough in the Six Nations. South Africa had an effective place kicker in Percy "Prince Charming" Montgomery, but his retirement from international rugby last year left a hole that has not been adequately filled.

On balance, then, the Springboks have it. The Lions must play out of their skins to defeat South Africa on their home turf - as Telfer said in '97, it's going to be "fucking Everest, boys".