Likely Lions - Back Predictions

With just a few days to do go before Ian McGeechan announces his Lions squad to tour South Africa, a few predictions from your humble correspondent are long overdue. My blogging hiatus has had its benefits, however, as runners like Gavin Henson have fallen injured at the final hurdles (much like the Grand National tips I got from Oscar, thanks mate) presenting a much clearer picture of the available candidates.

Today we’ll look at the backs, before moving on in the next day or so to the forwards. I’m sure some of you will disagree with my suggestions, but having anticipated from the start that Paula would be seeing the sharp end of Sir Alan’s finger on The Apprentice last night I’m feeling pretty visionary right now.

Full Back

Test matcher: Lee Byrne

Byrne has missed the last few games for the Ospreys after his injury in the final game of the Six Nations. His form up until that point has no doubt left Wales fans wondering what might have been if he’d stayed on against Ireland – if he can return to fitness in that same form, he’s a shoo-in for the 15 jersey. He is completely dependable at the back, and is almost guaranteed to break the line three or four times in any given game with searing pace and unpredictable angles.

Dirt trackers: Delon Armitage, Rob Kearney

Both Armitage and Kearney will most likely make the trip as much for their versatility as for their good showings in the Six Nations. On tour it is vital to have as many options as possible up your sleeve to deal with the inevitable injuries that will accrue, and since these two could comfortably play anywhere in the back three their value increases. Armitage deserves the nod over Kearney, who occasionally looks a bit wayward for Ireland, although with a predominance of his countrymen expected to feature in the squad, Kearney may be chosen on the basis of the players’ mutual understanding.

Wings

Test matchers: Shane Williams, Tommy Bowe

The two Ospreys wingers have looked a little lacklustre in their last few club games, perhaps despondent at their side’s recent performances. Both have offered occasional sparks of hope, however, and you would expect that teaming up with the best of the British and Irish will bring them back to their best. Williams will almost certainly start, while Bowe and Cueto are on almost level pegging in my eyes. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Sale flyer edged it onto the team sheet, but I think Bowe offers greater size and strength, a valuable commodity in the Highveld.

Dirt trackers: Mark Cueto, Ugo Monye, (Armitage/Kearney)

Cueto has been in fine form for Sale and England, and deserves to tour. He and Armitage may well be the only representatives from the English back division, although Flutey is in with a decent shout at centre considering his form and the Wasps-biased selection committee. I have a love/hate relationship with Monye – he’s got more natural gas than a field of cows, but occasionally seems able only to run in a straight line, Forrest Gump style. If he had Williams sidestep he’d be one of the most dangerous players in world rugby, as he’s big and strong, and often makes the kind of last-man-defending-a-massive-overlap tackles that Sackey used to do so well. Some suggested that Thom Evans might get a seat on the plane, but even the most optimistic of Scots would have to admit that for all his latent talent he will probably have to wait another four years.

Centres

Test matchers: Brian O’Driscoll, Tom Shanklin

As Dean Richards noted in today’s Times, the choice of centres does depend to a large extent on your choice of fly-half. This prediction is based on the assumption that Stephen Jones will wear the 10 shirt. If O’Gara is pulling the strings, I would probably substitute Shanklin for D’Arcy, who has been quietly effective in linking up with O’Driscoll and would allow an intuitive 10-12-13 partnership. Some have suggested that O’Driscoll is undeservedly receiving the kind of praise usually reserved only for Deities and The Wire, but it cannot be denied that the Irish captain not only offers the moments of brilliance required to beat a team like South Africa, but also inspires belief in players and fans alike. This is a crucial ingredient that should not be overlooked in the recipe for success.

Dirt trackers: Gordon D’Arcy, Riki Flutey

Shanklin and D’Arcy offer similar battering-ram style options, a useful foil to O’Driscoll’s jinking creativity. Flutey has given himself the best possible chance of touring by finally proving himself for England, but may not be teamed up with O’Driscoll because of their similarities. As it seems that all other centres will have to form an orderly queue behind O’Driscoll, Flutey may find himself hidden from view behind the bulkier frames of Shanklin, D’Arcy or Roberts.

Fly-half

Test matcher: Stephen Jones

Trickiest call out of all the backs, I’m sure you’ll agree. Does Stephen Jones have what it takes? As I noted before, place kicking will be vital on this tour. I hope that whoever referees will spot what a dirty bunch the South Africans are, and the Lions need someone to punish every penalty that comes their way. I think Jones edges it in this regard, as well as offering more of a threat with ball in hand than O’Gara. As to who releases the backs better, I couldn’t say. Jones sometimes looks nervous and confused to me, as though he’s been placed in the middle of a crowded stadium naked and asked an especially tricky maths question. His defence is better than O’Gara’s too, which will probably be pretty important when you consider that the likes of Schalk Burger will regularly be going for a stroll through that particular part of the pitch.

Dirt tracker: Ronan O’Gara

O’Gara admittedly played a fairly instrumental part in Ireland’s Grand Slam victory, with some good passing and deft kicking to open up his back line, and he’s not been doing badly for Munster either, but I just think Jones is more reliable. O’Gara’s defence is a well-documented worry, although he held his nerve admirably in the final match of the Six Nations despite everything that Wales threw at him in the first half. They laid off him a bit in the second half and let him back in the game - the Saffers won’t. Not content with throwing the kitchen sink at him, they would tear up the plumbing too. The South African back row would trample him like wildebeest – it would be Mufasa in The Lion King all over again.

Scrum Half

Test matcher: Mike Phillips

Scrum half is another tricky one. I think Phillips will be selected for his strength and his reliability. He won’t give away the petulant penalties that Danny Care or Harry Ellis might do. He’s fantastic in open play too, morphing into a winger once he’s broken the line, and is great at staying on his feet in the tackle.

Dirt trackers: Harry Ellis, Tomas O’Leary

Ellis is such a try-hard that I think he might just make it on the tour. In the last year or so he’s started throwing himself at kickers with reckless disregard for his or their safety, and attempting a pick-and-go almost every other time he has the ball in a bid to prove to Martin Johnson that he deserves the England 9 shirt. This determination is, I imagine, exactly the kind of thing that McGeechan likes. Personally I prefer Care’s style of play, if not his occasional idiocy, and would rather see him and Dwayne Peel play, but unfortunately I think O’Leary will accompany Ellis to link up with O’Gara.

Your thoughts, dear readers?