Saturday 18 April 2009

Likely Lions - Forwards Predictions

Rumour has it that Ian McGeechan sits down with a bottle of whisky the night before announcing his Lions squad to finalise his selections. After the showing by a number of contenders in today’s EDF Energy Cup final, he may have to purchase more than one bottle – many of Cardiff’s players put on such a fantastic performance in front of McGeechan and Shaun Edwards in their 50-12 victory at Twickenham that the selection committee will have to give them more serious consideration than a solitary bottle of scotch allows.

Edwards declared recently that Lions players would be selected on form and not reputation, and today Leigh Halfpenny’s two try performance challenged the Wasps coach to prove that he meant it – the young winger’s pace and sevens-style confidence with the ball in hand would make a valuable impact on the tour. Martyn Williams also had a great match, and should have sealed a place on the trip with both form and reputation on his side, while Shanklin and Roberts were both aggressive and implacable in the midfield as usual.

So, to the second half of my Lions predictions. In sitting down today with my notebook to consider all possible forward candidates, it struck me just how good even a second-string Lions pack would be – this is reassuring when you remember that there is no way a tour victory in South Africa can be achieved without our pack consistently outplaying the Springboks in every aspect of the game. Thanks for all your comments on my back selections – I’d love to hear what those of you who are more accustomed to wearing single-digit numbers on your backs have to say about these as well.

Props

Test matchers: Gethin Jenkins, Euan Murray

I’m not sure how many props will be on the plane to South Africa, but I’m assuming there will be a few to cover injury and the substitution of one or both of the test match starters for maximum front-row efficiency. Murray has been outstanding both for Northampton and Scotland, and Jenkins has been a mainstay of the Welsh front-row not just for his scrummaging but because he gets around the park like nobody’s business. The Saffers have one of the most intimidating front rows in international rugby, but I think these two will be up to the challenge.

Dirt trackers: Adam Jones, Phil Vickery, (John Hayes/Andrew Sheridan possibly)

Both Jones and Vickery have also had outstanding seasons – some still say that Vickery is past it, but his scrummaging is second-to-none, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start a test considering the Wasps-biased selection committee. Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards will no doubt be pushing for Adam Jones too, who has worked tirelessly to improve as much as he has this season. If they take another prop, for me it’s between Hayes and Sheridan, and is a tricky one to call. Hayes is battle-worn professional, silently grinding it out for Ireland over many years, and can be relied upon – Sheridan’s star has waned recently, perhaps summed up best when he was floored by a soft punch from Julian White, but he is still a top scrummager and may well travel.

Hooker

Test matcher: Jerry Flannery

The Irish hooker had a great Six Nations and has been a vital cog in Munster’s success of late. His lineout throwing is impeccable, and he seems impervious to pain. When I see him play I’m reminded of Keith Wood’s gleefully soft-spoken masochism on the ’97 tour, when he took Matt Dawson aside and said “If it’s shit ball, just give it to me”.

Dirt trackers: Matthew Rees, Ross Ford

Rees had a fairly good Six Nations, but his lineout throwing occasionally let him down, especially against Ireland in the big showdown – O’Connell and his men tore his delivery apart, and with the accomplished Victor Matfield leaping for the ‘boks, the Lions hooker will need to provide perfect ball every time. Ross Ford has also caught the eye in a Scotland team that looked more promising this year than it has in recent memory – he may well be given the opportunity to impress in the build-up games to try and wrestle the 2 shirt from Flannery’s grasp.

The Row

Test matchers: Paul O’Connell, Alun Wyn-Jones

The ginger goliath’s towering performances for club and country have done enough to persuade some that he should lead the Lions over Ireland’s talismanic centre, Brian O’Driscoll. Personally, in BOD I trust, but that he was even in consideration for the captaincy shows you just how highly he is rated at the moment. As to who will be binding down with him, it seems that Wyn-Jones has the majority vote for his excellent lineout skills and work rate, although the dirt trackers are biting at his heels.

Dirt trackers: Donncha O’Callaghan, (Ian Gough/Nathan Hines/Tom Croft)

I think Donkey O’Callaghan will be first in line after Wyn-Jones, not least because he and O’Connell have probably spent more time with their arms wrapped round each other than they have their wives. O’Callaghan is also known as a bit of a joker and, let’s face it, someone’s gotta cheer Shaun Edwards up. If they take another man for the row (and they might well take a back/second row hybrid like Croft instead) I’d expect to see either Gough or Hines go along, probably with the Welshman preferred for reasons unknown.

Flankers

Test matchers: David Wallace, Martyn Williams

Real tough one this. David Wallace was in my opinion one of the best players of the Six Nations, never more so than in the final match when the pressure was at its greatest. Like Martyn Williams in the match at Twickenham today, he was quicker to the breakdown than the AA, seemingly defying laws of time and space to exist in multiple locations at any given time. Williams’ experience will provide some calm and good-old-fashioned-nouse to a relatively youthful pack, while Wallace’s size and speed will be vital in countering the bestial figure of Schalk Burger at the collisions.

Dirt trackers: Tom Croft, (Joe Worsley/Stephen Ferris/Ryan Jones)

Croft’s recent form will not have been lost on any of the selectors – it is no mean feat to oust James Haskell from an England position that most believed he had well and truly made his own. Croft burst onto the scene with his pace (2nd fastest player in the whole Leicester squad) and his work at the ruck, and has the advantage of being a very easy lift in the lineout as he is so light. As I said before, he may well benefit from slotting easily into the second row, making him a useful addition to any side. Worsley showed his ferocious defensive capabilities in the Six Nations and could well be in line for a call-up from his Wasps coaches on Tuesday. Stephen Ferris was another who shone for Ireland, and has a decent shot at a place as well.

Numero Ocho

Test matcher: Jamie Heaslip

The Irish number 8 recently took over from long-time incumbent Dennis Leamy, and stamped his mark on the position with fantastic displays in the Six Nations. His highlight was a wholly-unexpected snaking run which left the French backs strung up like kippers, or whatever fish they eat in France. They looked stupid, anyway. Heaslip also has the power to clash with the South African back row and win.

Dirt trackers: Ryan Jones, Nick Easter

Ryan Jones is another who might benefit from his ability to play just as well at flanker. Wales’ hero of late has not quite been playing up to his own standards for his country or as part of a disappointing Ospreys team, but he is an outstanding player who would work himself to death for the Lions if given the chance to play. Nick Easter is not everyone’s cup of tea – I think he’s been a bit lacklustre recently for England, occasionally mirroring Steve Borthwick’s laughable attempts at making ground. He’s been playing well for Harlequins though, and picked up a hat-trick the other day. He’s a big strong lad who, if he’s at his best, can make valuable yards for his team.

So, we must wait until Tuesday for McGeechan’s squad announcement – expect to see him turn up bleary-eyed after a long night of decision making. His tiredness and hangover will be worth it, however, as we can be sure that no selections will have been made lightly, so that the best possible Lions team will tour. I can’t wait.

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